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04/13/18

Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
by Feifang Hu & James V Zidek ~ in our From the Archives Press & Video Clippings

From the Archives Press Clippings:
Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
By Feifang Hu & James V Zidek

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
By Feifang Hu & James V Zidek
Download source here:
Forecasting NBA Basketball Playoff Outcomes Using the Weighted Likelihood
by Feifang Hu & James V Zidek

"... Predicting the outcome of a future game between two sports teams poses a challenging problem of interest to statistical scientists as well as the general public. To be effective such prediction must exploit special contextual features of the game. In this paper, we confront such features and address the need to:

(i) use all relevant sample information;
(ii) reflect the home game advantage.

To do so we use the weighted likelihood. Finally we demonstrate the value of the method by showing how it could have been used to predict the 96/97 NBA playoff results. Our weighted likelihood-based method proves to be quite accurate. ..."

"... This paper demonstrates the use of the weighted likelihood (WL) to predict the winner of National Basketball Association (NBA) final games and applies the method in each of the games played in the 1996-97 finals between the two top ranked teams, the Chicago Bulls and the Utah Jazz. However, as we try to indicate, the WL has much wider applicability inside as well outside the domain of sports.way dunker created by a teammate’s steal, offensive rebound, and or perfect outlet pass? ..."

"... The genesis of our work lies in two statistical problems encountered in sports:
(i) the prediction of the outcome of a future game between two specified sports teams;
(ii) the assessment of the accuracy of this prediction.

Since typically these two teams will not have met more than just a few times in the given season, little direct information will be available to the forecaster. The consequent small sample size will make naive predictions inaccurate and the associated prediction intervals excessively large. ..."

1996-97 Chicago Bulls Championship: #1 ~ Randy Brown: #30 ~ Jud Buechler; #35 ~ Jason Caffey; #18 ~ Bison Dele; #9 ~ Ron Harper; #23 ~ Michael Jordan; #25 ~ Steve Kerr; #7 ~ Toni Kukoc; #13 ~ Luc Longley; #00 ~ Robert Parish; #33 ~ Scottie Pippen; #91 ~ Dennis Rodman; #8 ~ Dickey Simpkins; #6 ~ Matt Steigenga, #34 	Bill Wennington In this photograph from Operation Sports presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Photograph: Operation Sports

"... Usually in sports, the outcome of any one game derives from the combined efforts of two teams that have seldom played each other before. Yet these games yield the only direct sample information available about the relative strength of these two teams.

At the same time, each of these teams will have played many games against other teams thereby generating relevant (although not direct) sample information. The predictive probability of a win in the next game between these two teams, should combine both kinds of information ..."

"... Based on the probabilities and the confidence intervals of Table 1, we can find the probabilities with which the Bulls (and Jazz) will win the Final by Game 4, 5, 6 or 7.

Also we can calculate the total win probabilities for the Bulls against the Jazz based on its home and away win probabilities given by each of the three estimation methods.
Confidence intervals for these win probabilities may be obtained as well.

In Table 2 where the results are reported, and in the tables that follow, that interval is obtained for any pair of teams say A and B from the 95% asymptotic intervals for A’s home- and A’s away-win-against-B probabilities.. ..."

"... The method in this paper provides guidelines for the development of a prediction strategy. Its implementation, more specifically the construction of weights entails the incorporation of any special features that may obtain when the game is played.

For example, one might need to incorporate the knowledge that certain key players cannot play in that game."

To be more precise, we fitted a logistic model using the software R with the response variable being 1 or 0 according as the outcome of any game during the season was a visitor or home victory. We used dummy variables to represent visitor and home teams in each game throughout the season.

Thus for example, BullsV=1 and Super-sonics=1, all other dummies being 0, would mean those two teams were playing for that particular game, the visitors being the Bulls. For each of the factors, ‘visitor’ and ‘home’ we represented by the dummies in this way, we arbitrarily chose the 76er’s as the baseline team.

Thus, in effect, the fitted intercept, suitably transformed, provides an estimate of the likelihood of a ‘1’ in the purely hypothetical situation where the 76er’s played themselves at home as the visitors.

The coefficients for the remaining dummies represent the deviations from the 76er’s performance for each of the other teams depending on whether they were playing at home or awa ..." Read more ...

Read more articles in Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada


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To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here:
“Análisis Espacial de Lanzamientos en Baloncesto; el Caso de L.A. Lakers
by López, F.A., Martínez, J.A. y Ruiz, M.
.



From the Archives Video Clippings:
Va' pensiero Riccardo Muti speaking about Italian culture, Opera di Roma



Va' pensiero Riccardo Muti speaking about Italian culture, Opera di Roma

Muti said : yes, viva Italia... But, as we are in house, quite at home, let us speak together.
"Va pensiero", in old days, was a political symbol. I'm not a politician but I can say that if our culture goes on being slain, our Italia will be "si bella e perduta". So, as the choir has beautifully sung it, we should join them to sing another time "Va, pensiero !"


'From the Archives Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the regularly!

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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04/06/18

Dwane Casey Basketball Training Camp 2-Pack NEW BASKETBALL DVD

04/01/18

Basketball Beautiful Faces on APRIL 2018 Cover from the EuroLeague 2018 !
With the žALGIRIS KAUNAS DANCERS TEAM !

APRIL 2018 Cover ~ Basketball Beautiful Faces:
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wishes the eBA Stats Group from eBA-Stats.com !
With Erika G., from the best... from the EuroLeague ! With the žALGIRIS KAUNAS DANCERS TEAM !

from the EuroLeagie ! With the žALGIRIS KAUNAS DANCERS TEAM! In this photograph from žALGIRIS KAUNAS presented by #eBAStatsGroup #BasketballStatistics Analysis .
Photograph: žALGIRIS KAUNAS

Our Basketball Beautiful Faces of FEBRUARY 2018 Cover !
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03/28/18

Al Marshall's Basketball Zone Defense 2-Pack




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03/21/18

Kobe Bryant is not as Good as Michael Jordan -- So What?
by David Friedman ~ in our Weekly Press & Video Clippings

Press Clippings:
Kobe Bryant is not as Good as Michael Jordan--So What?
By David Friedman

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From 20 Second Timeout
By David Friedman
Download source here: ' Kobe Bryant is not as Good as Michael Jordan
So What? ' by David Friedman

"... Kobe Bryant scored 26 points during the Lakers' 100-94 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday December 14 to move past Michael Jordan into third place on pro basketball's career scoring list.

One might think that this accomplishment would be an occasion to reflect upon Bryant's consistency and longevity but while some observers have taken that approach many commentators go to great lengths--either via anecdotes or via statistics--to "prove" that Jordan is not just better than Bryant but that Jordan is much better.

The very fact that the comparison is often made--even if it is just done to belittle Bryant--says a lot. ..."

"... The way that some people compare Jordan and Bryant is interesting. The best case for Jordan versus Bryant would focus on Jordan's efficiency and Jordan's performances during his 6-0 run in NBA Finals (Bryant has one more Finals appearance than Jordan but also two more Finals losses).

Of course, field goal percentages in general were higher during Jordan's era, the rules and style of play were much different and Jordan's overall numbers benefited from him playing college ball before immediately becoming an NBA starter while Bryant jumped straight to the NBA from high school and thus needed some on the job training as a bench player. ..."

"... While some media members and fans may not understand or appreciate the rough edges of Bryant's personality, Kevin Durant, the 2014 NBA MVP, respects Bryant's approach and refutes the idea that good players do not want to play with Bryant:

Excuse my language, but that's (expletive). I want to play with a winner every single night, especially somebody who wants to win that bad, who works that hard, who demands a lot, who raises up your level.

I'd want to play with a guy like that every day...(His style) may make people uncomfortable, how he acts and just how he approaches the game, but I love that type of stuff. I think (the accusation) is BS. ..."

Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls talks to Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers about leadership and potential to succeed in the game of basketball In this Photograph from Flickr presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
Photograph: Flickr


"... Once one moves past comparing Bryant to Jordan and once one understands that any player with the right mindset would welcome the challenge and opportunity of playing with Bryant, one can focus on just how remarkable Bryant's current season is.

Forget for a moment his career-low field goal percentage and consider the fact that Bryant is a highly productive player in his 19th NBA season. Only three players in NBA history have even made it past their 19th season: ......"

"... In contrast, during the 2014-15 season Bryant is logging heavy minutes (35.4 mpg), his floor game is still excellent (5.1 rpg, 4.9 apg and 1.4 spg, numbers that are comparable to his career averages of 5.3 rpg, 4.8 apg and 1.4 spg) and he is scoring 24.6 ppg.

Bryant's field goal percentage (.372) is not good but he is remarkably productive and durable for a 19 year veteran who is coming off of two serious leg injuries. Bryant is in excellent shape and if his body holds up his field goal percentage will probably improve during the course of this season as he regains his game legs after being out of action for such an extended period.
..."

"... No, Kobe Bryant is not quite as good as Michael Jordan and, no, Kobe Bryant is no longer as efficient or dominant as he was during his prime--or even during his last healthy full season, when he was a legitimate MVP-caliber player averaging 25.5 ppg on .463 field goal shooting (including a career-high .510 from two point range) as a 17 year NBA veteran--but Bryant is the closest thing to Jordan that we have seen or are likely to see anytime soon. Bryant's former dominance and his remarkable, ongoing longevity should be celebrated. ..." Read more ...

Read more articles in 20 Second Timeout


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To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here:
' ¿Qué puede aportar la Estadística al baloncesto? ' by Román Salmerón.



Weekly Video Clippings:
' Snail's Dream ' Oscar nominated shortfilm by Iván Sáinz-Pardo



' Snail's Dream ' Oscar nominated shortfilm by Iván Sáinz-Pardo

An Iván Sáinz-Pardo shortfilm.
2001-Shortfilm 15 min. Germany / Spain

Oscar Award prenominated and nominated for "Deutsche Kurzfilmpreis" (Germany Oscars Awards).

Won at the Germany National Film Institution Friedrich Wilhelm Murnau-Stiftung, Germany 2002

Winner of 40 International Awards.


'Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the regularly

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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03/14/18

Basketball Statistics Questions: Illegal Lane Invasion on a Last Free Throw & Video C. Study

Basketball Tracking Stats Referred Questions:
Illegal Lane Invasion on a Last Free Throw Case Statistical Tracking

Basketball Registering Stats Referred Questions
...B1 invades the lane against the rules before the final free throw from A1 strikes the rim. A2 at that time invades the lane early, accompanied by A3, both players in marked lane spaces....

What is the Rule of the Game and the Statistics Tracking Rule according to the eBA Basketball Statistics System Book ? ...






Commentary=
Violations of A1 and A3 are dismissed. Therefore a new free throw is awarded to A1 due to B1's lane violation.

Illegal Lane Invasion on Jordan's Last Free Throw
Illegal Lane Invasion on Jordan's Last Free Throw in a Photograph from Worldisround.com

eBA Basketball Statistics Registration=
Nothing is registered out of the legal free throws according to the play.

All the terms in this answer are explained widely at The eBA Basketball System Book and in eBA Encyclopedia ONLINE.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis Encyclopedia
at the eBA Basketball Statistics System Book




Video Case Study:
Basketball TF for Simulating a Foul

"... We have here a Basketball TF for Simulating a Foul... Is it a real situation ? May be we have a referee mistake ?

How the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System analyze Juan Carlos Navarro´s action ? ..."

Examine this Case Sudy in this Message from the Basketball Statistics Forums


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03/07/18

About the Basketball Individual Statistics Underrated or Overrated
& the Basketball Training Video in our Reflexions on Basketball Statistics

Reflexions on Basketball Statistics:
About the Basketball Individual Statistics Underrated or Overrated

Basketball Statistician's Sunday's Reflexions
Are the individual statistics of good players on bad teams underrated in raw form ?
Are the individual statistics of bad players on good teams overrated in raw form ?

Some reflexions to begin the discussion:

1) Most teams without their best player will turn down the averages than with and probably lower than league average with the best players still included, so an adaptation must be overdone it in the team analysis in the cases of best players off.

2) There is team influence on player FG% and the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System performs adaptations either in the score or in the evaluation of the score.

But our System takes always in account that the player is utmostly agent or cause of the shots he takes.

3) A player on a bad team may take more hard shots and fewer not hurried ones and vice versa on a good team, so the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System takes all of these shots out and analyze the remaining shooting precision.

Basketball Individual Statistics Underrated or Overrated
Photograph: Vedia PhotoStream

4) Efficiency connected with statistics might become greater on a better team when the defense needs to move outward and defend so many other menaces.

However, from another point of view, the percentage of touches might grow worse.
When you're encircled by better players, you might get less touches than if you are the exclusive talent on a bad team.

5) And finally, good teammates among the good players will still get some recognition, bad teammates on the court will not gain as many bonus points and look inferior in individual ratings because of their unsatisfactory influence on other teammate shooting.

( Excerpts from my Exposition at the eBA Clinics:
"The Basketball Possessions Analysis and Statistical Tracking" )


Por Profesor

Read More at eBA SYSTEM ONLINE, search "basketball possessions" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System at the eBA System > The Articles


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Weekl;y Basketball Training Videos:
Shooting: JR Smith, Shooting: Elbow Drill

The Copyrights from this Video Owns to NIKE.com


Basketball Shooting: JR Smith, Shooting: Elbow Drill

Nike Basketball Pro Training presents JR Smith walking you through his dynamic shooting workout. Everything from the correct shooting form to being able to hit shots off of screens.

This video is from the NIKE SIGNATURE MOVES SERIES



'Reflexions on Basketball Statistics'
is a Series of Notes edited the regularly !

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03/01/18

Basketball Beautiful Faces on March 2018 Cover from the NBA 2018 !

MARCH 2018 Cover ~ Basketball Beautiful Faces:
HAPPY MARCH 2018 EVERYONE
wishes the eBA Stats Group from eBA-Stats.com !
With Emily H., from the best... from the NBA ! With the Dallas Mavericks Dancers Team !

Congrats To The Dallas Mavericks! In this Photograph from Pro Cheerleader Heaven presented by eBA Stats Basketball Statistics Analysis .
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Our Basketball Beautiful Faces of MARCH 2018 Cover !
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02/21/18

About the Points per Possession Basketball Statistic
& the Basketball Training Video in our Reflexions on Basketball Statistics

Reflexions on Basketball Statistics:
About the Points per Possession Basketball Statistic

Basketball Statistician's Sunday's Reflexions
Many coaches are now using what is called Points/Possession, or Turnovers/Possession.

The Pts./Poss. is an impartial reliable stat when all things are considered.

However it doesn't take into account the optimal pace as which a team plays.

Team A that receives 90 points may actually produce a better defensive efficiency than team B that allowed 80 points: in a fast paced game, Team A received 90 points but in 90 possessions.

This means their defensive efficiency was 1.0. Team B on the other hand received only 80 points but in a much slower paced game in 60 total possessions.

That is a defensive efficiency of 1.3 actually worse than team A who allowed ninety points.

Here at Respect Kobe, we pride ourselves on being fair and rational in our evaluation of players — including our beloved Kobe Bryant, as well as any challengers to his title of “best basketball player alive.”
Photograph: Kobe Bryant. Respect.

Points per possession is a completely good stat but what is more important is to break it down into ranges such as an offensive or defensive efficiency when you score or allow 90-100 points, 80-90, 70-80 and so forth.

The parameter we will find is that the team have better offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when he plays at its team's optimal pace.

The eBA System do this break down in his "Quarters Reports", when the game is Analyzed every 5 minutes by separate.

( Excerpts from my Exposition at the eBA Clinics:
"The Basketball Possessions Analysis and Statistical Tracking" )


Read More at eBA SYSTEM ONLINE, search "basketball free throws" in this blog and consult the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System.

This topic is resumed in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System at the eBA System > The Articles




Weekly Basketball Training Videos:
Shooting: Kobe Bryant - Signature Moves ~ ALL-IN-ONE
The Copyrights from this Video Owns to NIKE.com

Basketball Shooting: Kobe Bryant - Signature Moves ~ ALL-IN-ONE

Nike Basketball Pro Training presents Kobe Bryant showing a compendium of his best moves.

This video is from the NIKE SIGNATURE MOVES SERIES



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is a Series of Notes edited the First Monday of Every Month !

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02/14/18

Life and Sports Motivational Videos: « Why Do We Fall ? »

Life and Sports Motivational Videos:
« Why Do We Fall ? »



... « Why Do We Fall ? » ...

Audio:
Rocky Balboa (Sylvester Stallone), Any Given Sunday (Al Pacino), Coach Carter (Rick Gonzalez), The Great Dictator (Charlie Chaplin), Will Smith, Eric Thomas, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Michael Jordan, Derrick Rose, Ray Lewis, Muhammad Ali.


Music:
(00:00) Hans Zimmer: Corynorhinus
(01:07) Hans Zimmer: Time
(03:17) Hans Zimmer: Barbastella
(04:02) Hans Zimmer: Why Do We Fall
(05:23) Mark Petrie - Richat"


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Vic Schaefer Basketball: Offense and Defense 2-Pack

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JUNE 2018 Selected Pages !

About the eBA Stats Group Social Networks, Basketball Plays & Statistics Formulas!

About the Basketball Efficiency
in Different Possession Start Cases

About Basketball Assists
& Potential Assists

About the Right Way
to Evaluate the Basketball Defense

About Two Assists
in the SAME Basketball Play

About the Basketball
Team Defense Analysis

Open Letter About LinkedIn

About Basketball Stats,
Methods and Players

The Hand IS Part of the Ball
in Basketball

Underrated or Overrated
Individual Stats

Game Pace & TO Ratios
of Individual Players

Tracking Each Shot and the Game Situation with the Best Indicators of the Winner

Basketball Game Analyst
or Scientific Analyst ?

About Basketball Scouters & Statisticians

Modern Basketball Assist-Turnover
Ratio Levels

The Statistical Decision Limit
in Basketball

Basketball Rebounds
as Statistical Factor

Statistics Never Tell
the WHOLE Story

Basketball Starters and Substitutes

About the Basketball
Plus / Minus Data Analysis

Statistics Box Score Balance Errors

Basketball Assists
& Potential Assists

Basketball Team Defense

Basketball TO
& the "Game Pace" Factor


The World's Largest Selection of Instructional Basketball Videos, Books and DVDs


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Sobre las Redes Sociales del Grupo eBA Stats, Jugadas de Baloncesto y Fórmulas Estadísticas!

Sobre la Eficiencia en Baloncesto
Según el Comienzo de Posesión

Sobre las Asistencias del Baloncesto
y las Asistencias Potenciales

Sobre la Forma Correcta de Evaluar
la Defensa en Baloncesto

Sobre Dos Asistencias
en Una MISMA Jugada en Baloncesto

Análisis de la Defensa de Equipo
en Baloncesto

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Sobre Estadísticas, Métodos
y Jugadores

La Mano ES Parte del Balón
en Baloncesto

'Ritmo de Juego'
& la 'Relación de BP'

Cada Lanzamiento Conforme a la Situación y los Mejores Indicadores de una Victoria

Analista de Partido de Baloncesto
ó Analista Científico ?

Sobre Escouters y Estadígrafos
del Baloncesto

Niveles de Relación Asistencias-Balones Perdidos en el Baloncesto

El Límite Estadístico Determinante
en Baloncesto

Concepto del Rebote
como Factor Estadístico en Baloncesto

Las Estadísticas No cuentan TODO !

Titulares y Suplentes en Baloncesto

Sobre el Análisis de los
Datos del Plus / Minus en Baloncesto

Errores en el Balance de las Estadísticas

Asistencias y Asistencias Potenciales

Análisis de la Defensa de Equipo

BP y el Factor "Ritmo de Juego"



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